The S&P 500 index continues to trade in bear market territory. However, this month the index is testing its 36-month moving average, which historically has served as a potential turning point following market downturns. We are closely watching where the S&P will close at the end of June as it relates to the closely watched 36-month moving average. If the index can remain above the 36-month average on a closing basis over the next few months, that would indicate bullish sentiment and a potential bottoming of the bear market. If we see the S&P close below this average on a monthly basis, we expect a higher likelihood of another leg lower in the latter half of 2022.
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